— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
56¢
nbm
42¢
eps
37¢
rrfs
34¢
aifs
27¢
hres
14¢
wn2
11¢
icon
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F30¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,158 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape