— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
53¢
aifs
45¢
eps
40¢
hres
39¢
icon
30¢
wn2
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F27¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,159 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.739 vs climatology 9.163.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape