— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
76¢
nbm
62¢
ndfd
59¢
aifs
52¢
hres
47¢
rrfs
42¢
hrrr
41¢
icon
15¢
wn2
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F21¢
84–85°F28¢
86–87°F22¢
88–89°F11¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,316 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.739 vs climatology 9.116.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape