— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
91¢
rrfs
64¢
ndfd
59¢
nbm
55¢
hres
45¢
wn2
29¢
aifs
29¢
icon
27¢
now
5¢
hrrr
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F2¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F18¢
88–89°F27¢
90–91°F25¢
92–93°F14¢
94–95°F5¢
96–97°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,575 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.555 vs climatology 9.052.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape