— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
82¢
ndfd
55¢
wn2
50¢
nbm
46¢
icon
28¢
aifs
13¢
hres
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F20¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,526 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.733 vs climatology 9.052.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape