— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
42¢
nbm
13¢
wn2
7¢
ndfd
5¢
aifs
1¢
icon
1¢
hres
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F21¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,524 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.733 vs climatology 9.053.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape