— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
12¢
hres
10¢
aifs
8¢
eps
7¢
ndfd
2¢
nbm
1¢
icon
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F20¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,425 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.945 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape