— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
88¢
aifs
87¢
hres
82¢
wn2
81¢
icon
65¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
33¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F29¢
80–81°F31¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,729 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 9.016.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape