— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
85¢
aifs
79¢
hres
74¢
icon
65¢
nbm
60¢
wn2
58¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F6¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,680 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.699 vs climatology 9.016.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape