daily prop · Nashville, TN · Southeast · settles Tue Oct 6

Nashville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Oct 6

4¢

american +2581 · decimal 26.81

on the tape

86°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		25¢
nbm		23¢
aifs		12¢
hres		6¢
rrfs		4¢
eps		4¢
icon		1¢
wn2		1¢
now		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

74–75°F2¢

76–77°F7¢

78–79°F18¢

80–81°F28¢

82–83°F26¢

84–85°F14¢

86–87°F5¢

88–89°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,781 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.525 vs climatology 9.005.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape