— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
48¢
nbm
44¢
aifs
42¢
eps
30¢
icon
22¢
wn2
14¢
hres
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F11¢
84–85°F27¢
86–87°F33¢
88–89°F20¢
90–91°F6¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,887 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-10-06T04:07:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape