— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
79¢
hres
72¢
nbm
58¢
eps
54¢
wn2
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F14¢
86–87°F27¢
88–89°F29¢
90–91°F18¢
92–93°F6¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,937 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.523 vs climatology 8.965.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape