— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
53¢
hres
28¢
icon
23¢
aifs
8¢
wn2
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F33¢
72–73°F28¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,041 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.52 vs climatology 8.934.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape