— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
53¢
nbm
36¢
eps
34¢
ndfd
11¢
icon
2¢
aifs
0¢
wn2
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,789 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.976.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-03T08:04:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape