— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
80¢
hres
70¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
56¢
aifs
34¢
hrrr
13¢
icon
9¢
wn2
8¢
rrfs
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F13¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,740 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape