— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
89¢
nbm
63¢
hres
56¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
44¢
wn2
21¢
aifs
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,839 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.964.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape