— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
51¢
aifs
14¢
nbm
9¢
wn2
3¢
ndfd
2¢
icon
1¢
hres
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,839 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.964.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-10-04T07:29:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape