— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
97¢
wn2
96¢
icon
93¢
eps
82¢
hres
64¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F20¢
88–89°F15¢
90–91°F9¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,790 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.964.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-07T04:20:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape