— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
35¢
wn2
28¢
nbm
13¢
eps
13¢
ndfd
13¢
hres
12¢
rrfs
11¢
icon
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F20¢
88–89°F15¢
90–91°F8¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,790 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.964.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-05T07:42:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape