— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hrrr
100¢
nbm
100¢
ndfd
99¢
aifs
98¢
wn2
98¢
rrfs
95¢
eps
84¢
hres
76¢
icon
63¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F10¢
84–85°F17¢
86–87°F21¢
88–89°F19¢
90–91°F14¢
92–93°F8¢
94–95°F3¢
96–97°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 13,691 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.467 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-07T04:20:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape