— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
74¢
aifs
71¢
nbm
67¢
hres
66¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
54¢
eps
49¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
84–85°F1¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F20¢
90–91°F31¢
92–93°F26¢
94–95°F12¢
96–97°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,251 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.518 vs climatology 8.884.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape