— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
85¢
hres
56¢
nbm
52¢
icon
30¢
wn2
13¢
aifs
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F12¢
60–61°F26¢
62–63°F31¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F7¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,353 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.517 vs climatology 8.864.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape