— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
75¢
eps
70¢
rrfs
62¢
ndfd
59¢
aifs
53¢
wn2
46¢
hres
36¢
icon
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F29¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape