— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
85¢
eps
72¢
wn2
70¢
nbm
52¢
aifs
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F29¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape