— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
22¢
nbm
4¢
hres
4¢
ndfd
3¢
aifs
2¢
wn2
2¢
eps
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-11T07:31:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape