— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
90¢
rrfs
83¢
nbm
76¢
aifs
73¢
hres
68¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
56¢
wn2
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F23¢
72–73°F25¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape