— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
67¢
nbm
54¢
icon
53¢
hres
49¢
eps
49¢
aifs
49¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F29¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape