— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
40¢
wn2
36¢
icon
32¢
ndfd
25¢
hres
20¢
eps
12¢
nbm
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F7¢
84–85°F2¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape