— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
40¢
aifs
39¢
hres
29¢
icon
28¢
nbm
21¢
eps
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261027-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape