daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Wed Sep 30

Boise high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 30

settled · observed 78

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 90¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		67¢
ndfd		55¢
wn2		41¢
hres		29¢
eps		21¢
nbm		21¢
icon		8¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00 · settled 2026-10-07T13:27:44+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape