daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Fri Oct 2

Boise high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 2

settled · observed 81

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 82°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 84¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

now		94¢
aifs		90¢
hrrr		83¢
nbm		76¢
wn2		72¢
hres		66¢
ndfd		59¢
rrfs		56¢
icon		44¢
eps		42¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00 · settled 2026-10-07T13:27:52+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape