daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Fri Oct 2

Boise high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 2

settled · observed 81

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 84°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hrrr		72¢
aifs		70¢
ndfd		56¢
hres		45¢
nbm		44¢
rrfs		31¢
eps		26¢
icon		24¢
wn2		12¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-30T15:53:40+00:00 · settled 2026-10-07T13:27:52+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape