— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
85¢
wn2
66¢
eps
65¢
icon
64¢
hres
54¢
nbm
54¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F26¢
76–77°F29¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,254 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape