— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hrrr
99¢
aifs
93¢
rrfs
84¢
wn2
76¢
hres
67¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
52¢
icon
39¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F28¢
76–77°F30¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,353 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.517 vs climatology 8.864.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape