— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
80¢
aifs
78¢
wn2
63¢
hres
60¢
ndfd
59¢
rrfs
50¢
icon
42¢
nbm
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F25¢
74–75°F23¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape