— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
92¢
aifs
92¢
wn2
86¢
eps
86¢
icon
83¢
nbm
67¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F20¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape