daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Wed Oct 21

Boise high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

47¢

american +114 · decimal 2.14

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hrrr		82¢
aifs		70¢
rrfs		66¢
nbm		59¢
ndfd		56¢
hres		49¢
eps		45¢
wn2		43¢
icon		15¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F2¢

72–73°F10¢

74–75°F24¢

76–77°F31¢

78–79°F22¢

80–81°F8¢

82–83°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-18T14:56:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape