— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
99¢
eps
85¢
hres
76¢
wn2
63¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
55¢
aifs
39¢
icon
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F24¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape