— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
29¢
hres
25¢
icon
18¢
ndfd
15¢
nbm
12¢
eps
12¢
aifs
8¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
48–49°F1¢
50–51°F6¢
52–53°F17¢
54–55°F28¢
56–57°F28¢
58–59°F15¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-LE51 · opened 2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape