— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
92¢
aifs
79¢
icon
76¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
53¢
eps
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F1¢
48–49°F3¢
50–51°F7¢
52–53°F12¢
54–55°F18¢
56–57°F20¢
58–59°F18¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE55 · opened 2026-10-17T07:43:53+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape