— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
96¢
aifs
92¢
icon
90¢
hres
58¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F5¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F13¢
60–61°F16¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOS-20261025-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-18T08:00:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape