daily prop · Buffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 19

Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

73°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 73°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		29¢
aifs		19¢
icon		8¢
hres		5¢
eps		0¢
nbm		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F1¢

58–59°F3¢

60–61°F9¢

62–63°F19¢

64–65°F26¢

66–67°F23¢

68–69°F13¢

70–71°F5¢

72–73°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape