— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
93¢
aifs
81¢
nbm
75¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
43¢
hres
37¢
hrrr
37¢
eps
34¢
icon
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F10¢
60–61°F24¢
62–63°F31¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape