— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
20¢
aifs
10¢
ndfd
5¢
icon
3¢
hres
2¢
nbm
1¢
eps
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F22¢
62–63°F36¢
64–65°F26¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape