— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
80¢
aifs
72¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
32¢
rrfs
18¢
eps
17¢
hres
5¢
icon
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F5¢
58–59°F13¢
60–61°F24¢
62–63°F27¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape