daily prop · Buffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Thu Oct 22

Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Thu Oct 22

3¢

american +3434 · decimal 35.34

on the tape

71°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 71°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		20¢
wn2		11¢
ndfd		7¢
icon		6¢
nbm		3¢
hres		2¢
eps		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

54–55°F1¢

56–57°F5¢

58–59°F13¢

60–61°F24¢

62–63°F27¢

64–65°F19¢

66–67°F8¢

68–69°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape