— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
92¢
aifs
68¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
46¢
eps
32¢
icon
15¢
hres
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F6¢
54–55°F13¢
56–57°F21¢
58–59°F24¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape