— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
87¢
icon
74¢
nbm
56¢
aifs
54¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
52¢
eps
38¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F18¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape