daily prop · Baltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 19

Baltimore high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

70¢

american -232 · decimal 1.43

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 65°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		87¢
aifs		74¢
hres		74¢
nbm		55¢
eps		49¢
icon		46¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F2¢

58–59°F5¢

60–61°F11¢

62–63°F17¢

64–65°F21¢

66–67°F19¢

68–69°F13¢

70–71°F7¢

72–73°F3¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape