daily prop · Baltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Wed Oct 21

Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

73¢

american -265 · decimal 1.38

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 66°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		93¢
aifs		84¢
eps		70¢
rrfs		62¢
nbm		59¢
ndfd		56¢
icon		53¢
hres		48¢
hrrr		33¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F7¢

64–65°F19¢

66–67°F30¢

68–69°F26¢

70–71°F12¢

72–73°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape